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Tuck: March Madness Bracket Advice 2014

Posted By Mike Tuck On March 19, 2014 @ 2:33 PM In 1080 Sports,College,Florida News,Insider Main,main feature,TO - Mike Tuck Column,TO - Tuck and O'Neill main | No Comments

PICKING A CHAMPION

– Since tournament expansion in 1985 the national champions by seed: #1 (18), #2 (4), #3 (4), #4 (1), #6 (1), #8 (1)

– Only 3 of 75 champions never won 6 in a row during the regular season: 1981 Indiana, 1983 NC State, and 1997 Arizona.  The Hoosiers never won 6, as they only needed 5 wins in the tournament that year prior to expansion.

– Only 3 of 75 champions won the title after having missed the tournament in the year previous: 1986 Louisville, 2003 Syracuse, and 2011 Connecticut.

– Only 2 of 75 champions lost games by more than 25 during the season: 1965 UCLA and 1993 North Carolina.

– Only 2011 UConn didn’t have a winning record in conference, finishing 9-9 in the Big East.

– Only 1 champion, 1997 Arizona, had a losing road record, finishing 5-8 that season away from Tucson.

Never has a national champion:

Had a losing record in conference

Lost in the opening game of their conference tournament: Syracuse, Villanova, Oklahoma, St. Louis

That was never ranked during the year at any point

Lost 5 games in a row during the season: Oklahoma State

Coaching

Coaches with Final Four experience have won 13 of the last 14 championships.

 

Now that you’ve narrowed in on a champion, here are some hints for the rest of your bracket.

 

Since 1985 First round breakdown:

#1  116-0

#2  109-7

#3  99-17

#4  91-25

#5 75-41

#6  77-39

#7  70-46

#8  56-60

Only once in the past 17 years have all the #2 seeds advanced past the first weekend.

A #4 seed has lost to #13 in each of the last 6 years.  If you don’t think that will happen, at least understand that never once since 1985 expansion have all four #4 seeds advanced to the Sweet 16.

Don’t go 1-2-3-4 in any region.  Believe it or not, that’s only happened 4 times since 1985, last in 2007.

Since 1985, 15 double digit seeds have reached the Elite 8: #10 (7), #11 (5), #12 (1), #14 (2)

Last two years, no team has.

Of the last 24 Final Four teams…

* 10 of 24 (42%) have been in Ken Pom’s Top 5 for defensive efficiency
* 18 of 24 (75%) have been in Ken Pom’s Top 20 for defensive efficiency
* 21 of 24 (88%) have been in Ken Pom’s Top 30 for defensive efficiency

Top 5?  Arizona, VCU, Virginia, Ohio State, Florida

6-20? Louisville, San Diego State, St. Louis, Cincinnati, Wichita State, UConn, Gonzaga, Tennessee, Villanova, Syracuse, North Carolina

21-30? Kansas State, Tulsa, Oklahoma State, Nebraska, Arizona State

The past 11 champions have finished in the top 20 of KenPom’s offensive and defensive stats.  This year’s qualifiers: Louisville, Florida, Wichita State, and Villanova. 

15 of the last 19 years at least one mid-major advanced to the Elite 8.

Every Final Four team in the last 7 years has had at least an 8 game winning streak during the season.

 

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