Tuck: Fantasy Football Busts
This isn't a list of guys I don't like. This is a list of guys I don't like as much as the next guy. My feelings range anywhere from disaster might be looming to I just like the other options on the board more.
QB Robert Griffin III, Redskins-Forget the fact that he's coming off of ACL surgery for a moment. RG3 threw for 1 or 0 TD's in 10 of his 15 games. He threw for over 260 yards...3 times all year. His rushing stats: 826-7 are what made him a top quarterback. If you cut those in half, he's nothing more than a QB2. I love him as a real player, but am nervous about him as a fantasy player this year because I think he'll have less running plays called for him.
QB Andrew Luck, Colts-Luck won't throw it as much this year, he can't. New system, new coach. So expect his yards to come down even as his completion percentage goes up. He very well could surpass last year's 23 TD total, but with a more run-heavy approach, I doubt it's by enough to warrant drafting him as a top ten quarterback when it's such a deep group this year.
RB Arian Foster, Texans-He is so touchdown reliant, it's what made him a top 3 guy the last couple of years. He certainly could do it again, but I wouldn't bet on it. These nagging injuries are the nail in the coffin to me. I'd consider letting him slide out of the first round based on the other great, healthier, and younger RB options.
RB Doug Martin, Bucs-I like the kid. I think he's a RB1. Problem is I think he's more of the end of the 1st round, not the top of it. I worry a bit because 1/6 of his yards and 1/3 of his touchdowns came in the one game against the Raiders. He's talented, but others have more upside.
RB Frank Gore, 49ers-I'd feel much better about him as a RB3 than a RB2 based on his age and declining touches. The Niners would be wise to continue to involve Kendall Hunter and LaMichael James more, and I have a feeling the passing game will be more prominent with Colin Kaepernick and his laser-rocket arm than it was with Alex Smith.
WR Wes Welker, Broncos-I think he'll play plenty. I think he'll also require plenty of attention, and whereas he was Brady's #1, Manning will throw to whoever is open and there are only so many balls to go around. Welker isn't much of a TD-producer or big play guy so he relies on getting a ton of catches for his value. I'd be surprised if he caught more than 80 balls, which really chops down his value. He's not in my top 20 WR.
WR James Jones, Packers-With Jennings and Nelson out much of last year, Jones emerged. Yes, that's true. And it's also true Jennings is gone permanently now. Problem is Jones fantasy value came from his league-high 15 TD catches. His yards and catches are nothing to get excited about and probably won't change much this year as he won't see the field more than he did last year. Some people may take him as a WR2, and I got him more as a good WR4.
WR Cecil Shorts, Jaguars-5 games with Chad Henne at QB: 26-418-3. 9 games with Blaine Gabbert: 29-561-4. Basically he became twice as good with Henne, who will be on the bench to start the year. Plus, do you really want to watch the Jaguars offense and hope they find ways to get him the ball.
TE Kyle Rudolph, Vikings-He averaged 30 yards per game receiving last year. He scored 9 TD thanks to 17 redzone targets, more than any other tight end. I just don't like hoping for play-action passes inside the ten so that my tight end has a chance to give me points this week. I have him 15th in my rankings.