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RotoExperts: Your Survivor Contest Primer

Posted By rotoexperts On August 20, 2013 @ 10:52 AM In Fantasy Main,NFL,NFL - Fantasy | No Comments

I’m excited to once again by a part of the RotoExperts team, writing a column on weekly Fantasy Football with a focus on FantasyFeud.com’s offerings.

Fantasy Feud is launching Fantasy Football Survivor Contests for the 2013 NFL season.

How Does it Work?

Pick just 3 players every week of the NFL Season.  Quarterback. Running Back. Wide Receiver. Each player may only be used once per season. Every week, 1/16 of the field will be eliminated. It is a standard scoring system with .5 PPR. Only those who survive and advance all the way to the final week (week 16) will make the money. The final week will determine the Survivor.

All details about the Fantasy Feud Survivor Contests can be found HERE [1]. The rules, prizes, and different contests are all posted on this page.

Now that we have the basics of the Survivor, let’s get into some strategies that can help you win.

1.   Make your own Cheat Sheet

 

Here are the top 16 ranked position players at QB, RB, and WR. These rankings should be adjusted week to week, but this is a framework to start from.

 

QUARTERBACK RUNNING BACK WIDE RECEIVER
Aaron RodgersDrew Brees

Peyton Manning

Russell Wilson

Matt Ryan

Cam Newton

Colin Kaepernick

Tom Brady

Matthew Stafford

Tony Romo

Andrew Luck

Robert Griffin III

Andy Dalton

Eli Manning

Sam Bradford

Joe Flacco

Adrian PetersonC.J. Spiller

Arian Foster

Doug Martin

Jamaal Charles

Trent Richardson

Matt Forte

LeSean McCoy

Marshawn Lynch

Ray Rice

Alfred Morris

Steven Jackson

Reggie Bush

Chris Johnson

Darren Sproles

Darren McFadden

Calvin JohnsonDez Bryant

A.J. Green

Brandon Marshall

Julio Jones

Demaryius Thomas

Andre Johnson

Vincent Jackson

Larry Fitzgerald

Victor Cruz

Roddy White

Torrey Smith

Randall Cobb

Danny Amendola

Pierre Garcon

Eric Decker

You can track the players you have selected each week on the Fantasy Feud scoreboard results page, but also put a line through the players on your cheat sheet.  It is also important that you keep a secondary cheat sheet of five players at each position who could potentially move into the top 16 depending on the weekly matchup. Players like Carson Palmer, Michael Vick, Maurice Jones-Drew, Stevan Ridley, and Reggie Wayne could all be used in a given week provided they have a top matchup, but these are players to use later on in the year when the player pool has thinned out.

2.   Know the schedule and the impact of it

Thursday – These games do not count in Survivor so be aware of the players who are not going to be in the player pool.  The two teams impacted the most are the Broncos and Ravens, who have two Thursday games.

Bye Weeks – Weeks 8 and 9 are the biggest ones impacted by this, so plan ahead and start looking at the schedule a couple weeks beforehand.  BAL, CHI, HOU, IND, DEN, DET, NYG, SF are the teams most impacted here.

Home vs. Road – Always lean toward the players on the home team between two equally ranked players and if they play in a dome, that is an added bonus because you will not have to worry about the elements of bad weather. This also goes for fading players on the road especially in a hostile environment vs. a stout defense. A team like the Seattle Seahawks has the biggest home field advantage in football due to the huge crowd noise they generate.

Another sprinkle to this rule is to avoid players on the road that are travelling from the West Coast to the East Coast or vice versa. History shows teams in these situations usually perform below expectations.

3.   Impact of Coaching Changes

This mostly goes for the first three weeks of the season.  But you can keep an eye on these situations.

Arizona-Bruce Arians. Should be a pass-heavy offense helping Carson Palmer and Larry Fitzgerald

Buffalo-Doug Marrone.  We have been hearing there will be a heavy dose of C.J. Spiller.

Chicago-Marc Trestman. There are supposed to be shorter passes for Jay Cutler and more balls for Matt Forte.

Cleveland-Norv Turner(OC). Running backs under Turner have always performed at a high clip, making Trent Richardson valuable and Brandon Weeden a possible one-start play at home vs. a weak defense.

Indianapolis-Pep Hamilton(OC). Andrew Luck’s coach in college, more of a running game and usage of the tight ends.

Jacksonville-Gus Bradley is a defensive coach, and looks to be a heavily leaning back to Maurice Jones-Drew.

Kansas City-Andy Reid. Upgrades on the O-line and Quarterback should help Jamaal Charles and Dwayne Bowe. But there will not a lot of down-the-field throwing so far in the West Coast offense.

New Orleans-Sean Payton.  With Payton returning to the sidelines, expect Brees and company to be more explosive, and the worst-ranked defense to be much improved.

Oakland Raiders-It won’t matter.

Philadelphia Eagles-Chip Kelly.  High-octane offense looks to favor LeSean McCoy and DeSean Jackson with Michael Vick getting some love now.

4.   Identify Fantasy points allowed by opposing defense by position

Opposing Defenses to avoid (Based on 2012 Fantasy Points Allowed)

QB-PIT, SEA, ARI, NYJ, CHI, SF, BAL, CIN, DEN, ATL

RB-PIT, HOU, SF, DEN, CHI, SEA, DET, MIA, MIN, NE

WR-SEA, NYJ, DEN, CIN, CAR, STL, PIT, ATL, SF, ARI

Opposing Defenses to target (Based on 2012 Fantasy Points Allowed)

QB-NO, TB, NE, WAS, MIN, NYG, PHI, TEN, BUF, OAK

RB-NO, TEN, CAR, JAC, OAK, BUF, CLE, DAL, ATL, KC

WR-TB. NO, WAS, CLE, IND, MIN, NE, DET, NYG, TEN

Granted, these rankings from 2012 are not absolutes in 2013, as teams have changed head coaches, coordinators, and personnel, but early on you can lean towards them and track the results to see where things have changed. New Orleans, Tampa Bay, and the Giants should have improved on defense.

5.   Impact of Injuries

Play the wait-and-see game on players like Colin Kaepernick because we don’t know how the offense is going to run without Michael Crabtree.

6.   Understanding Vegas Lines

You want to focus on the players who are projected to be in the highest scoring games. (47 points or higher), while staying away from the lowest scoring games (42 points or lower). In games like PIT/TEN, where it’s a low total, but PIT is a touchdown favorite, I would lean towards taking Steeler RBs, knowing TEN is a weak run defense.

Week 1 Projected Highest Scoring Games(Point Total)

NO/ATL 53

NE/BUF 51

PHI/WAS 51

GB/SF 48.5

IND/OAK 47.5

DAL/NYG 47.5
Week 1 Projected Lowest Scoring Games(Point Total)

TB/NYJ 40.5

KC/JAC 41

STL/ARI 41.5

PIT/TEN 42
Week 1 Projected Largest Margin of Victory

NE -8.5 over BUF

PIT -7.5 over TEN

IND -7.5 over OAK

7.   Spread the Wealth

The last thing you want to do is take Drew Brees, Adrian Peterson, and Calvin Johnson in the same week.  Sure, it probably guarantees you advancing, but you have wasted bullets that would be better served later on. Remember only 6 percent of the field is eliminated each week, so taking three top tier players will only hurt you in the long run.  A good rule of thumb is trying to take players that you project in the Top 5 for the week, and are at least twenty percent higher than their average weekly projected score.  Example: if Andrew Luck would project to average 22 Fantasy points on the season, but in Week One he is projected to score 27 fantasy points.

8.   Build your Target Lists

Once you have your cheat sheets done and have gone through the schedule, injuries, weather, etc. Start to whittle down your list of Targets and Avoids for the week. Here is an example of Week One below.

Week 1 Players to Target

QB-Matthew Stafford vs. MIN, Andrew Luck vs. OAK, Tony Room vs. NYG, Matt Ryan vs. NO

RB-Adrian Peterson vs. DET, Steven Jackson vs. NO, Jamaal Charles vs. JAC, Alfred Morris vs. PHI

WR-Calvin Johnson vs. MIN, Andre Johnson vs. SD, Victor Cruz vs. DAL, Pierre Garcon vs. PHI, Ruddy White vs. NO, Reggie Wayne vs. OAK, Dwayne Bowe vs. JAC

 

Week 1 Players to Avoid

QB-Cam Newton vs. SEA, Sam Bradford vs. ARI

RB-Chris Johnson vs. PIT, CJ Spiller vs. NE, Trent Richardson vs. MIA

WR-AJ Green vs. CHI, Vincent Jackson vs. NYJ, Larry Fitzgerald vs. STL, Steve Smith vs. SEA

All details about the Fantasy Feud Survivor Contests can be found HERE [1]. The rules, prizes, and different contests are all posted on this page.

Think you have what it takes to beat Adam Ronis in weekly Fantasy Football? Come play him on Fantasy Feud in a weekly FREE contest where one lucky winner will take on the “Fantasy Genius” in Week 13 for a shot to win $1,000!!!  CLICK HERE FOR DETAILS [2]

RotoExperts: Your Survivor Contest Primer by

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[2] CLICK HERE FOR DETAILS: http://www.fantasyfeud.com/ronis

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