Tuck: 2013 Super Bowl Odds

Before we digest what we see, let’s think about what we know.

1. The NFC is tougher.  NY, San Francisco, Green Bay, New Orleans, Detroit, Atlanta, Philadelphia, Dallas, and Chicago are all legit contenders.  That’s 9 of the 16 teams.  The AFC is much weaker with New England, Baltimore, and Pittsburgh all getting older.  The Jets are a mess and so is San Diego.  Denver?  Cincinnati?  Tennessee?  You get the picture.  Getting out of the NFC is rough making AFC longshots the better bet.

2. The Giants turned their season around in part because they got healthy.  You have to think about teams that suffered injuries that derailed their seasons.  Teams like Chicago, Kansas City, and Houston had some major issues.

3. There is one MAJOR free agent to be out there that could change some teams destiny.  PEYTON MANNING.  Knowing where he’ll go is guessing, but I am guessing if he chooses a team their odds are going to climb significantly.

4. Value matters.  The Eagles were a top 10 offense and defense statistically.  Vegas noticed, maybe too much, ranking them in a tie for THIRD.  Even if you like them, it’s not a very good bet.


Here are the current odds:

New England Patriots 5-1

Green Bay Packers 11-2

Pittsburgh Steelers 6-1

Philadelphia Eagles 6-1

New York Giants 8-1

New Orleans Saints 10-1

San Francisco 49ers 10-1

San Diego Chargers 12-1

Houston Texans 12-1

Chicago Bears 17-1

Detroit Lions 18-1

Atlanta Falcons 18-1

Dallas Cowboys 20-1

Baltimore Ravens 20-1

New York Jets 20-1

Indianapolis Colts 25-1

Tennessee Titans 30-1

Cincinnati Bengals 30-1

Buffalo Bills 50-1

Kansas City Chiefs 50-1

Seattle Seahawks 50-1

Denver Broncos 50-1

Carolina Panthers 50-1

Miami Dolphins 50-1

St. Louis Rams 50-1

Oakland Raiders 60-1

Minnesota Vikings 60-1

Arizona Cardinals 60-1

Cleveland Browns 75-1

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 100-1

Washington Redskins 125-1

Jacksonville Jaguars 150-1
Odds courtesy of MGM Grand Las Vegas


Here’s what I think:

I like Kansas City a lot.  The Chiefs play in a bad division, and they almost won it this past season even without Jamal Charles, Eric Berry, Matt Cassel, Tony Moeaki, and they fired their coach.  50-1 on a team that won 10 games two seasons ago with a lot of young talent I like.

The Miami Dolphins at 50-1 make sense too.  They are in the AFC, finished the year playing well, and are one of the top contenders for Peyton Manning, who could transform an average offense into a very good one to go with a very good defense.

I want to avoid the NFC if I can, but thinking about possible Peyton destinations, you can’t.  Arizona is mentioned, but at 60-1 I’ll pass on them for the Washington Redskins at 125-1.  A potent pass rush, a good offensive line, a championship-winning coach, and Manning for the second longest odds on the board?  Sign me up even if they are in the NFC and on paper only the 4th best team in their division.

I had the Houston Texans as a long-shot last year, which may have played well if not for the injuries.  At 12-1 they still are a decent play this year.  The young Cincinnati Bengals at 30-1 aren’t bad either, and are slightly more tempting than Oakland, even if the Raiders are 60-1.