Charlie’s Week 3 NFL Picks

Week 2 was a little unkind for me as a prognosticator as I finished a lackluster 7-8-1 against the spread, putting me at an even .500 for the season (15-15-2). That’s not making any money. This week’s spreads appear tough, but we’ll try our hand at it.

Tampa Bay +7 @ New England

I love the Bucs in this matchup. With no Rob Gronkowski, the Patriots will struggle to get people open against this Tampa secondary and nobody runs the football on the Buccaneers. Will Josh Freeman break out of his slump? Maybe? Patriots 20, Bucs 17.

San Diego +3 @ Tennessee

The Chargers have a bad defense and the Titans have a bad offense. Something has to give. I’ll take Tennessee because I don’t believe San Diego can travel across three time zones two weeks in a row and play two good games. Titans 19, Chargers 13.

Cleveland +7 @ Minnesota

So no Brandon Weeden and no Trent Richardson for Cleveland, and this team is on the road. It seems too easy and it could be a trap, but I like the Vikings to cover this one. Vikings 24, Browns 10.

Houston -2.5 @ Baltimore

The Texans have more firepower on both sides of the ball than the Ravens do. This is a much bigger game for the Texans than it is for the Ravens. Houston 21, Baltimore 17.

St. Louis +4 @ Dallas

The Rams have a better defense than what they showed last week but I’m not sure how their passing game is going to work against the Cowboys talented secondary. I expect a low-scoring affair. Cowboys 16, Rams 13.

Arizona +7 @ New Orleans

I don’t like the Saints here….I love the Saints here. Their defense is much improved and nobody wins in the Dome. Saints 31, Cards 14.

Detroit +2 @ Washington

This one has UPSET SPECIAL written all over it. The Redskins secondary is terrible and the Lions can really throw the football. I love the Lions on the road. Lions 28, Redskins 24.

Green Bay -3 @ Cincinnati

This is one of the best matchups of the weekend as Green Bay and the best quarterback in the world play one of the best defenses in football. I usually like a home dog, especially if it’s a good team. Packers 24, Bengals 23.

New York Giants -1 @ Carolina

The Giants are best when their backs are against the wall. I also get Tom Coughlin against Ron Rivera. No brainer, Giants 24, Panthers 13.

Atlanta +3 @ Miami

The Falcons have injuries all over the place and they’re very young in the secondary. Ryan Tannehill is playing well and the Dolphins will make a statement. Dolphins 24, Falcons 17.

Indianapolis +10 @ San Francisco

The Colts are a good team but they’re walking into a hornets nest in San Francisco. The 49ers were embarrassed last week by a great Seahawks team and traveling across three time zones will hurt the young Colts. 49ers 42, Colts 20.

Jacksonville +19 @ Seattle

The Jaguars haven’t really been competitive in their first two games and the Seahawks look like the best team in football. So why pick the Jags? Because nobody covers a nearly 20-point spread. Seahawks 28, Jaguars 10.

Buffalo +3 @ New York Jets

The Jets appear to be a mess but they’re a mess that plays pretty good defense. In a battle of two rookie quarterbacks, I’ll take the rookie who has the veteran coach. Jets 17, Bills 13.

Chicago -3 @ Pittsburgh

Normally you’d love to have the Steelers at home in prime time with points. This isn’t a normal situation. Pittsburgh can’t block anyone and the Bears are scoring plenty of points. Bears 27, Steelers 21.

Oakland +15.5 @ Denver

The Broncos have been destroying teams and they are fantastic at home. That said, I can’t lay 15.5 points to anyone (although if I could Oakland would be on my short list). Broncos 31, Raiders 17.

Last week: 7-8-1
Season: 15-15-2

The Charlie Bernstein Show is on Monday through Friday from 3-7 pm on Sportstalk 1040 The Team.  You can listen live by clicking here.