AFC South Over/Unders

The NFL Draft has been completed, most of the impact moves in free agency have been made months ago and the 2013 schedule is out. Perhaps most importantly, Las Vegas has weighed in and set the over/unders for each NFL team. We are going to take a look at each team, division-by-division and speculate on whether they will finish better or worse than their numbers show.

AFC South

Houston Texans- Over/Under- 10.5 Wins

Is this bettable? It is not bettable. Houston made slight upgrades in the offseason and they’ve been successful the last two years but does anyone feel that the Texans are really progressing? As long as Houston has Matt Schaub (who is fresh off a contract extension) their ceiling will always be limited. It’s difficult to imagine that J.J. Watt can play any better than he did last season and the Colts seem to be gaining ground. Houston has some tough games in the beginning of the season and their schedule appears to soften in the middle. They should be a playoff team again but it’s difficult to say that they’ll win considerably more than 11 games or really less than 11. The best bet is the under, but this is one i’d stay away from.

Indianapolis Colts- Over/Under- 8.5 Wins

Is this bettable? It is bettable. The Colts may be a better team than they were a season ago, but it still might not reflect that in the win-loss total. Andrew Luck should be better with an offseason of NFL experience and they have the benefit of having the Jaguars and Titans in the division (potentially four easy wins). If the Colts can split with Houston they are more than halfway to the desired over total. The Colts should win 9 or more games this season.

Jacksonville Jaguars- Over/Under- 5 Wins

Is this bettable? It is not. It’s no secret that the Jaguars are a bad team. Drafting a right tackle with their second overall pick likely isn’t going to make a huge difference in the win-loss department. The real question is how bad will Jacksonville be? There are six games on the schedule that the team has virtually no chance of winning. Can they win 6 of the remaining 10? Will they win 4 or less? With Blaine Gabbert starting all things are possible (what we mean by possible is losing most of your games). If forced to wager I would bet the under but Gus Bradley will likely have the team competitive most weeks.

Tennessee Titans- Over/Under- 6.5 Wins

Is this bettable? It is bettable. The Titans are continuing with the Jake Locker experiment which is accomplishing nothing but setting the franchise back yet another year. There’s no game on Tennessee’s schedule that isn’t losable and Tennessee’s early part of the schedule is brutal. The Titans will be in more contention for the first overall pick than they will for a .500 season.

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