Insider : Bowl Projections

In the final weekend of college football regular season  there are still questions  that still have to be resolved. Where will Florida, Florida State, UCF  go  bowling?  Who will play in Sunshine State Bowl games?  and who playing in the BCS Bowls?  I break down the scenarios  this weekend.

BCS  Title  Game   –    Notre  Dame    vs  Alabama

Scenario-  Winner of Bama-Georgia plays Notre Dame for the title. I am projecting Alabama  to defeat Georgia in SEC Title Game.

Orange  Bowl–        Louisville  vs  Florida State

Scenario-  Kent State  has a chance to end up here if the win MAC Championship over Northern Illinois. Kent State needs a win and be in the top 16 of the BCS final rankings. They are currently 17th.  A win and losses by Texas and UCLA could do the trick  and bump Big East champ Louisville to Sugar Bowl.  I am projecting Kent State to lose to Northern llinois  and Florida State to defeat Georgia Tech.

Sugar  Bowl  –     Florida   vs Oklahoma

Scenario-   The Gators are all but a  lock for Sugar Bowl   and  all indications are  that Oklahoma will end up here even if they win the Big 12 title  as there are reports that the Sooners want to go to Sugar instead of Fiesta Bowl  where the Sooners have been there often recently.  If Kent State qualifies for BCS  could bump Oklahoma out of the BCS completely and drop them to the Cotton Bowl. Should the Sooners lose to TCU on Saturday could also  cause the Sooners to drop to the Cotton Bowl. We are projecting the Sooners to take care of TCU.

Fiesta Bowl –   Oregon  vs Kansas State

Scenario-  Oregon  should be lock as an At-Large  team  while Kansas State would clinch the berth to Fiesta Bowl with a win over Texas on Saturday. A loss by Kansas State and win by Oklahoma means the Sooners win the Big 12 and could  end up here. But the Sooners do not want to return to the state of Arizona  so the Wild Cats may end up here even with a loss. We are projecting a Kansas State win over Texas.

Rose Bowl –   Stanford  vs  Nebraska

Scenario-  Its simple winner of Pac 12 title game  Stanford/UCLA and winner of Big 10 title game between Wisconsin/Nebraska  will end up in Pasedena.

Capital One Bowl  (Orlando)   –   Michigan  vs  Texas AM

Scenario-  Big 10  vs SEC  matchup  here, Michigan all but a lock to end up in Orlando as its most attractive choice out of the Big 10. SEC  was first thought  to be the loser of Alabama-Georgia  would end up in Orlando, however  there a strong push  to bring in Texas AM and possibly the soon to be Heisman Trophy winner  quarterback Johnny Manziel  and the buzz   that is around the Aggies  to Orlando. We will project that Georgia-Alabama will get passed by Texas AM and Johnny Football.

Outback  Bowl  (Tampa)   –   Northwestern  vs  South Carolina

Scenario-  This is where it gets very tricky,  If Alabama defeats  Georgia,  South Carolina more then likely ends up in Tampa with Mississippi State and Vanderbilt in the mix.  If Georgia defeats Alabama, look for LSU to end up in Tampa.  Tampa will have to pick between Wisconsin/Nebraska loser   and Northwestern  for this spot. We project Tampa  to go with the Wildcats .

Gator  Bowl (Jacksonville) –  Wisconsin  vs Vanderbilt

Scenario-  Just like scenaro above, Gator Bowl will pick who ever Tampa does not pick between South Carolina, Vanderbilt, Mississippi State. Jacksonville would love to have Steve Spurrier in Jacksonville and the Gamecocks may prefer to go to Jacksonville instead of a trip to Tampa which they have done previously. If South Carolina is off the board, then the Gator Bowl will pick between Vanderbilt and Mississippi State. I project Vanderbilt who had better season and is more excited to travel to a bowl game then the Bulldogs.

Chick-Fil – A Bowl  (Atlanta)   –   Clemson vs Georgia

Scenario-  Clemson lock to be in Atlanta   especially with potential matchup with Georgia looming if Georgia loses to Alabama. The question is though what if FSU loses to Georgia Tech? does Atlanta take the Seminoles here and Clemson drop to Orlando  for Russell Athletic Bowl?  or does Atlanta still pick Clemson and the Seminoles drop to Orlando for second straight season? or do the Noles drop to El Paso for the Sun Bowl? Also  if  Georgia defeats Alabama  , who ends up in Atlanta?  LSU, South Carolina ,Mississippi State,  all join  the mix  at that point with the edge  to LSU.

Russell Athletic  Bowl (Orlando) Dec 29-    Rutgers vs Virginia Tech

Scenario- Rutgers  will be in Orlando following the loss to Louisville. Va Tech would be the choice here assuming the Noles win the ACC title. Should the Noles lose to Georgia Tech, then FSU may end up back in Orlando for the 2nd straight season or  Clemson may be here if FSU ends up in Atlanta.


Beef O Brady  Bowl  (St Pete)  –  East  Carolina  vs  Middle Tennessee

Scenario-  If UCF loses to Tulsa on Saturday, the Knights will end up here, but I am projecting UCF to defeat Tulsa. if  Pittsburgh and Connecticut  win this weekend, then the Big East would be able to fill all the bowl game slots including  this game. In that scenario, Pittsburgh  would be the team to come to St Pete.  I am projecting Connecticut to lose this weekend  which would mean Beef O Brady  would pick an At Large  more then likely either from Sun Belt or MAC conference. I am projecting Middle Tenn to lose to Arkansas State in defacto Sun Belt title game and end up here  with La-Monroe, Arkansas State as options as well.

Liberty  Bowl (Memphis)-       UCF vs Arkansas State

Scenario-  This was supposed to be SEC vs CUSA champ  game but the SEC will not have all bowl slots filled and under contract this year  the CompassBowl in Birmingham will get the SEC team before Liberty which opens up the slot.  Word out of Memphis is that the Sun Belt Champion ends up here  which I project to be Arkansas State to play the UCF/Tulsa winner. La-Monroe could also slip in here as well as team from the MAC.