Tuck: March Madness Bracket Advice

– Let’s start simple. Don’t pick four #1 seeds. It’s only happened once ever.

– This is an old-school bracket, with teams seeded below 12 all being Cinderella-type teams.

– 15 seed with the best chance to win?  Milwaukee.  They get the weakest #2 seed in Villanova.  Milwaukee also beat everyone’s favorite mid-major sleeper Green Bay.  Not once, but twice.

– 14 seed with the best chance to win? Don’t love any, but Western Michigan might have the best shot against an offensively slumping Syracuse team.

-13 seed with the best chance to win? New Mexico State.  They were a tourney team last year, and get a San Diego State team that can really struggle to score.

– 12 seed with the best chance to win?  North Dakota State. One of the best offenses in the country with a ton of experience (5 of their top 8 are seniors) that will have a chance to outscore Oklahoma.  Also Harvard and NC State/Xavier will have a shot to win their games. Taking more than one 12 is something to consider.

– In the first 3 years of the “First Four” one of the winners of those games has gone on to win another game.  Something to keep in mind.

– Bet on the Big XII.  Its the best conference in the country and it’s teams will be competitive because they have great offenses.  If you can score, you can win in college hoops.

– Bet on NBA talent. Being better is more important than being experienced.

– The field is deep, so don’t be afraid to pick at least one 1-seed, one 2-seed, and one 3-seed not making it to the Sweet 16.  Chances are strong not all 12 of the top teams will get that far.

– I believe the South, East, and Midwest all very balanced regions.  The West is the weakest top to bottom.  Arizona is the clear-cut favorite, but Oklahoma State could be a head-ache for them in the second round.

– Baylor has played as one of the hottest teams in America after a rough start to their conference season. Their size will pose major issues for their half of the West region.

– I have no issue with SMU or anyone else getting left out.  The bubble this year is pretty bad.  The committee laid out the final teams in this order: BYU, Dayton, Nebraska, Tennessee, Iowa, Xavier, and NC State.  We can argue about that order the same we can argue about any order. If we had a 64 team field, then I think we’d have a more interesting debate of Dayton/BYU versus the “First Four.” All those teams have their pluses and minuses.

– I was amazed the negative reaction to Louisville’s seeding.  I had them a #3 ahead of Creighton, but never considered them as a #1 or #2.  Resume doesn’t add up.  I am more amazed the number of people picking Michigan State, which is a fine pick, but why are those people more upset about them only getting a #4 seed?

– Underseeded- Kentucky, Louisville, Pittsburgh, Iowa

– Overseeded- Creighton, UMass, BYU

– Stars to watch:

Andrew Wiggins, Kansas

Jabari Parker, Duke

Gary Harris, Michigan State

Melvin Ejim, Iowa State

Montrezl Harrell, Louisville

Scottie Wilbekin, Florida

Cleanthony Early, Wichita State

Nick Johnson, Arizona

Kyle Anderson, UCLA

Marcus Smart, Oklahoma State

Joe Harris, Virginia

CJ Fair, Syracuse