Tuck: Bracketology- Who Wants The 4th #1 Seed?

– Florida and Arizona are almost locks at this point to be on the top line, likely dueling each other for top overall seed.

– Wichita State appears safer than ever because of the lack of competition for the final #1 seed.  I still think they could be on shaky ground if they lose in their conference tournament, but they’d fall no further than a #2 seed even if that happened.

– Syracuse, Duke, and Kansas all have stumbled with a chance to put a stamp on a top seed.  That has opened up the door for Villanova and Virginia, and the Big Ten tournament winner if it’s Michigan, Michigan State, or Wisconsin.  8 teams for one spot.

– One thing conference realignment has caused is a lack of bubble teams in non-power conferences.  Leagues like the A-10, AAC, and Big East might be a step below the Big 5, but they are all easily multi-bid leagues.  The MWC is safely going to get two teams in.  After that though, only BYU of the WCC really looks like a true bubble team.  Leagues like the MVC, OVC, WAC, C-USA, Horizon, and MAC have been multi-bid leagues in the past, but are either down, or depleted by realignment.  The reality is only the MVC with Wichita State and the WCC with Gonzaga/BYU are threats to bubble teams where if those teams are upset, it will steal a bid from a bubble team.

– In other words, it really is every bubble team for themselves the next 2 weeks.

– Reminder, there are 32 automatic bids and 36 at-large bids.  The last 4 teams in will play each other in the “First Four” or “First Round.”

– The only low-major school that can get higher than a 12 seed is Green Bay.

– Mid-Majors you know, Wichita State and Gonzaga are going to be higher seeded.  The C-USA champ, if it’s Louisiana Tech, or possibly Southern Miss might land an 11 seed.

– The rest of the conference champs will fill in 12-16.

– You want to be amused/amazed?  Take the time to find teams true road records.  Startling how few games they play…and how poor the record is.



1. Florida

2. Virginia

3. Wisconsin

4. North Carolina

5. Louisville

6. Texas

7. New Mexico

8. Kansas State

9. George Washington

10. SMU


1. Kansas

2. Syracuse

3. Michigan State

4. St. Louis


6. UConn

7. Kentucky

8. Providence

9. Arkansas

10. Baylor



1. Arizona

2. Michigan

3. San Diego State

4. Oklahoma

5. Cincinnati

6. VCU

7. Arizona State

8. Memphis

9. Pittsburgh

10. Oklahoma State



1. Wichita State

2. Villanova

3. Duke

4. St. Louis

5. Iowa State

6. Ohio State

7. Arizona State

8. Iowa

9. Gonzaga

10. St. Joe’s


LAST 7 IN (11 automatic bids above): Oregon, BYU, Dayton, Xavier, Colorado, St. John’s, Missouri

LAST 7 OUT: Clemson, Nebraska, Stanford, Georgetown, FSU, Utah, Marquette