We kept our heads above water in Week 3 as I finished a mediocre 8-7-1 against the spread, putting me just above .500 for the season (23-22-3). That’s not making any money. This week’s spreads appear tougher, but we’ll try our hand at it.
Arizona +2.5 @ Tampa Bay
Arizona has been very competitive against better teams than the Bucs. Tampa Bay is starting a rookie quarterback in Mike Glennon who hasn’t been able to practice with his starting wide receivers, as Vincent Jackson and Mike Williams are both hurt. Why are the Bucs favored? Because it’s a Vegas trap game. Buccaneers 23, Cardinals 17.
Pittsburgh -1 @ Minnesota
The Steelers showed some signs of life late in the 3rd quarter against the Bears on Sunday night. Neither of these teams are good so I’ll take Ben over Matt Cassel. Steelers 27, Vikings 17.
Baltimore -3.5 @ Buffalo
This too can be a Vegas trap but I’m going to jump right in. The Ravens defense is full of new pieces and it’s starting to gel. That will equate to trouble for rookie signal caller E.J. Manuel. Ravens 24, Bills 20.
Indianapolis -9 @ Jacksonville
The Jaguars look completely inept on offense and because of that their defense stays out on the field too long and gets exposed. Colts 31, Jaguars 9.
Seattle -3 @ Houston
The Seahawks could be the best team in the NFL. Houston is one of the best home teams in the NFL and they will be able to run the football against Seattle. Upset Special!!! Texans 24, Seahawks 22.
Chicago +3 @ Detroit
This is a tough game to call as I’m a believer in the Bears and not as much in the Lions. That said, if Detroit can limit turnovers then they should beat Chicago. Lions 31, Bears 27.
New York Giants +4.5 @ Kansas City
The Giants can’t block for Eli or David Wilson. Kansas City has one of the best front seven’s in football. The Giants move to 0-4. Chiefs 28, Giants 10.
New York Jets +4 @ Tennessee
This is another game that I wouldn’t bet. Both defenses are very solid and both young quarterbacks have the tendency to be turnover prone. The Jets have a slight coaching advantage but that is nullified by the Titans home field. Titans 21, Jets 16.
Dallas -2 @ San Diego
The Cowboys have many more weapons than the Chargers do. The Cowboys defense is also solid and there will probably be more Dallas fans at the Q. Cowboys 24, Chargers 17.
Washington +2.5 @ Oakland
Last year the Redskins would have been a 7 point favorite. The Skins are going bad, but Matt Flynn will throw a crucial interception or three for the Raiders to seal it for the ‘Skins. Redskins 17, Raiders 6.
Philadelphia +11 @ Denver
The Broncos can do whatever they want on offense and that’s amplified when they play at home. Philadelphia’s fast pace will work against them this week in a major way. Broncos 45, Eagles 21.
New England +1.5 @ Atlanta
The Falcons played well in a loss last week despite missing a lot of key components. The Patriots are beginning to find their way with their young receivers and Rob Gronkowski may make his first appearance this season. It’s close, but I’ll take Brady. Patriots 31, Falcons 28.
Miami +6.5 @ New Orleans
The Saints are good everywhere and great at home. The Dolphins have been outplayed in two of their three victories and they won’t be able to hang with the high-octane offense of the Saints. Saints 34, Dolphins 20.
Last week: 8-7-1
The Charlie Bernstein Show is on Monday through Friday from 3-7 pm on Sportstalk 1040 The Team. You can listen live by clicking here. Charlie's Week 4 NFL Picks by Sports Talk Florida