California Chrome will win the Preakness. Can you win?

California Chrome gets his morning bath and is ready to run in this afternoon's 139th Preakness States.

California Chrome gets his morning bath and is ready to run in this afternoon’s 139th Preakness States.

(Baltimore) Well on a cool morning with the temperatures around 50 degrees it is a beautiful sunny day at Pimlico. Today starting at 4:30 p.m. ET NBC will begin their coverage of the 139th running of the Preakness Stakes right here from Pimlico Race Track in Northwest Baltimore.

All things seem go for the odds on favorite and Kentucky Derby winner California Chrome. He looked good this morning after a brief workout and a bath he returned to his stall to hang out until things begin to pick up around 6 p.m. ET

The weather for the 6:18 p.m. race should be ideal with temps around the 70 degree mark with little to no wind and a dry track, despite some soaking rains, that dumped around two inches of water on the track, Thursday night into Friday afternoon. But the water has drained well and there should be no problems come post time.

California Chrome will very likely take the second jewel in the Triple Crown this afternoon the 139th Preakness Stakes.

Alan Sherman the assistant trainer for California Chrome told Sports Talk Florida that “California Chrome is fine and the the little tickle in his throat that was there early in the week is now gone. He is fit and ready to run, no health issues we are just excited to get to race time.”

To be honest the field of nine other horses that California Chrome will face later today here at Pimlico is far from a strong field. Chrome remains the odds on favorite and is far and away the class of this group.

Let’s talk betting!

Latest Odds with Post Positions

No. 1 Dynamic Impact 16/1

No. 2 General A Rod 20/1

No. 3 California Chrome 4/7

No. 4 Ring Weekend 28/1

No. 5 Bayern 12/1

No. 6 Ria Antonia 28/1

No. 7 Kid Cruz 14/1

No. 8 Social Inclusion 6/1

No. 9 Pablo Del Monte 28/1

No. 10 Ride On Curlin 14/1

The race could also attract $80 million in total bets legally at off track betting around the United States. That’s about 50 times larger than the amount that Pimlico sees on most other Saturdays. And it’s more than twice the amount of money that will be bet on horse racing in the entire nation on a normal Saturday.

So where does all this money come from?

A lot of the extra cash infusion comes from people who have no skill at picking horse races. That means there will be a lot of irrational bets, creating opportunities for “positive expected value” bets—meaning that on average, your bet should turn a profit. With so many drunken amateurs betting, you have decent odds of making a profit.

Here is what I would do from a betting stand point.

Put California Chrome in a combo bet with  these three other horses  Social Inclusion, Bayern, and Ride On Curlin and you should be a winner.  

The horse THAT COULD beat California Chrome is Social Inclusion, at a very solid 5-1 make sure to have him in any of your combo bets.  Never made it to the Derby but can make things uncomfortable for “Chrome” today. He’s my “Sleeper” bet and can’t see him finishing worse than second.

Bayern at 10-1 odds is worthy of boxing considerations. Especially with Pimlico’s tight turns. He’s a fighter with exceptional speed and he’ll be hard to put away when they turn for home. Can hit the board.

Ride on Curlin at 10-1 odds –  Son of Curlin seems to enjoy going long and may fill out your superfecta. He won’t win but has the speed to make that third slot in the place position.  

Here are your betting options using the horses that I have given you to bet.

Trifecta Key
You play three horses. You chose one horse to win, called the key horse, who must come in first followed by the other two horses second and third in any order to collect. You may play more than two horses in second and third, which means any two of those horses can finish in those positions and you will win. Since this has multiple wagers in combination, it is a $1 minimum wager at most tracks.

Trifecta Box
You play three horses. They must finish first, second, and third in any order to collect. Since this has multiple wagers in combination, it is a $1 minimum wager at most tracks.

Superfecta
You play four horses. They must come in first, second, third, and fourth in EXACT order. This is a $2 minimum wager at most tracks.

Superfecta Box
You play four horses. They must finish first, second, third, and fourth in ANY order. Since this has multiple wagers in combination, it is a $1 minimum wager at most tracks and some even go as low as 10 cents for the minimum!

So there you go a guide to the running of the 139th Preakness States. Good luck and good wagering!

 

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